The lesson is simple: the only meaningful way to evaluate forecasters is over the long term, and even then past performance is no guarantee of future results. Show me a forecaster who comes close to the figures year after year, in recessions and booms, and I’ll agree he or she may offer value to investors and executives. Until then, you’ll do just as well guessing the numbers yourself as guessing which forecaster would do better.
To deal with black swans, we instead need things that gain from volatility, variability, stress and disorder. My (admittedly inelegant) term for this crucial quality is “antifragile.” The only existing expression remotely close to the concept of antifragility is what we derivatives traders call “long gamma,” to describe financial packages that benefit from market volatility. Crucially, both fragility and antifragility are measurable.
If you focus only on the economy, you will achieve economic growth, but will face negative consequences on other fronts such as environment, sustainable social issues, stress in everyday life, etc. But, if you concentrate on holistic development, then you are likely to achieve improvement in well-being.
This is CRUCIAL imho:))