Future of Business & Communications: FuturistGerd

Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.

National Intelligence Council - Global Trends

The report is available for the most popular content platforms and e-readers as well as via PDF. Brief talking points are available here.

Gerd adds: a free book for Kindle and Apple etc - looks interesting, just downloaded it.

dni.gov

Skift Report: 13 Global Trends That Will Define Travel in 2013 by Skift

We believe these 13 trends, by no means exhaustive, will help define travel and many other interconnected sectors:

Everyone wants a Chinese tourist
Ancillary fees are the new normal
Last-minute mobile hotel booking
The rise of price transparency
Travelers are hungry for food tourism
Airports as destinations
Destination branding through movies
Digital maps are one of travel’s key battlegrounds
Personal in-flight entertainment through mobile devices
Affordable design at hotels
Blurring of business and leisure travel
Cementing of the Gulf as the next great global aviation hub
Lure of the last unknown: The rise of Myanmar

Gerd adds: nice report ( and free;)

The State Of The Internet [SLIDE DECK] - Business Insider

greenfuturist:

A special report by members and friends of the World Future Society A child born today will only be 88 years old in the year 2100. It’s time to start thinking and caring about the twenty-second century now. The next 88 years may see changes that come exponentially faster than the previous 88 years. What new inventions will come out of nowhere and change everything? What will our families look like? How will we govern ourselves? What new crimes or other threats loom ahead? Will we be happy? How? (via The 22nd Century at First Light: Envisioning Life in the Year 2100 | World Future Society)

Must-read essays - great resource

Made me think: Article: From Smart House to Networked Home | WFS (mediafuturist.com)
Please check out my 3 Tumblr blogs: The Future of Business & Communications, GerdFuturist, GreenFuturist (mediafuturist.com)
“Mike Liebhold, senior researcher and distinguished fellow at The Institute for the Future theorized:…” (futureof.biz)

Media and regulators are demonizing Big Data and its supposed threat to privacy,” noted Jeff Jarvis, professor, pundit and blogger. “Such moral panics have occurred often thanks to changes in technology…But the moral of the story remains: there is value to be found in this data, value in our newfound publicness. Google’s founders have urged government regulators not to require them to quickly delete searches because, in their patterns and anomalies, they have found the ability to track the outbreak of the flu before health officials could and they believe that by similarly tracking a pandemic, millions of lives could be saved. Demonizing data, big or small, is demonizing knowledge, and that is never wise.

Introduction and overview of responses | Pew Internet & American Life Project

pewinternet.org

(via Mary Meeker Explains Internet 2012: The Full D10 Interview (Video) - Kara Swisher - D10 - AllThingsD)

A real morsel - must watch!

allthingsd.com

A fascinating new report from Associate Professor Michael A. Carrier at Rutgers University School of Law, entitled “Copyright and Innovation: The Untold Story”, interviews 31 CEOs, company founders and VPs who have worked in digital music over the past 10 years. It illustrates the digital music landscape in the aftermath Napster’s shutdown, demonstrating how the battle between P2P and the music industry has stunted innovation, discouraged investment in the music technology sector, and ultimately led to a complicated copyright law-dominated environment that has widened the gap between technologists and music. (via 31 Digital Music Execs Sound Off On How P2P Battle Led To Music Industry Demise - hypebot)

hypebot.com

Total spending on media and entertainment is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.7 percent to $2.1 trillion by 2016….The future of media and entertainment is all about digital, which will generate 67 percent of spending growth in the next five years. But digital growth is not incremental—it’s directly cannibalizing older types of content distribution—like traditional books or even TV subscriptions. One business that will unilaterally benefit from the rise of digital: broadband and wireless service providers. Spending to access the Internet, both through broadband and Wi-Fi, will grow to $493 billion in 2016 from $317 billion in 2011…Interestingly, the report projects that music “will rebound with steady expansion,” growing to $19.8 billion in 2016 from $15.2 billion in 2011. Online radio advertising is projected to hit $802 million in 2016 while satellite radio ads are projected to generate $116 million in revenue….The publishing industry will see traditional print books decline, but that will be more than compensated by the rise in eBooks. Electronic books are projected to grow by an almost 32 percent compound annual growth rate.

PWC: Entertainment, Media to Grow—Music, Digital, Broadband to Benefit - CNBC

cnbc.com

stoweboyd:

State of the News Media 2012 - Pew Research Center

This year’s study also includes special reports on the impact of mobile technology and social media on news. Those reports, which feature new survey data, finds that rather than replacing media consumption on digital devices, people who go mobile are getting news on all their devices. They also appear to be getting it more often, and reading for longer periods of time. For example, about a third, 34%, of desktop/laptop news consumers now also get news on a smartphone. About a quarter, 27%, of smartphone news consumers also get news on a tablet. These digital news omnivores are also a large percentage of the smart phone/tablet population. And most of those individuals (78%) still get news on the desktop or laptop as well.

A PEJ survey of more than 3,000 adults also finds that the reputation or brand of a news organization, a very traditional idea, is the most important factor in determining where consumers go for news, and that is even truer on mobile devices than on laptops or desktops. Indeed, despite the explosion in social media use through the likes of Facebook and Twitter, recommendations from friends are not a major factor yet in steering news consumption.

In the post-PC present, we have news up the ying, exploding out of all our devices like volcanic magma. But the Pew verbiage about who profits misses an essential point — typified by the ‘news consumption’ viewpoint they still espouse — we have moved away from audience-centered media to experience-centered media. The experience is what matters, so that’s why the value shifts to the tools we use to use information shaped by the news form factor. Using information is not equivalent to ‘consuming media’, but the media companies don’t get it.

The new media folks desperately want to write for some hypothetical audience, one they can find the center of. They are like border collies, wired to herd sheep and frantic if they can’t find any.

Read the full report.

pewresearch.org