Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds Global Trends 2030 is intended to stimulate thinking about the rapid and vast geopolitical changes characterizing the world today and possible global trajectories over the next 15 years. As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications.
Media and regulators are demonizing Big Data and its supposed threat to privacy,” noted Jeff Jarvis, professor, pundit and blogger. “Such moral panics have occurred often thanks to changes in technology…But the moral of the story remains: there is value to be found in this data, value in our newfound publicness. Google’s founders have urged government regulators not to require them to quickly delete searches because, in their patterns and anomalies, they have found the ability to track the outbreak of the flu before health officials could and they believe that by similarly tracking a pandemic, millions of lives could be saved. Demonizing data, big or small, is demonizing knowledge, and that is never wise.
Total spending on media and entertainment is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 5.7 percent to $2.1 trillion by 2016….The future of media and entertainment is all about digital, which will generate 67 percent of spending growth in the next five years. But digital growth is not incremental—it’s directly cannibalizing older types of content distribution—like traditional books or even TV subscriptions. One business that will unilaterally benefit from the rise of digital: broadband and wireless service providers. Spending to access the Internet, both through broadband and Wi-Fi, will grow to $493 billion in 2016 from $317 billion in 2011…Interestingly, the report projects that music “will rebound with steady expansion,” growing to $19.8 billion in 2016 from $15.2 billion in 2011. Online radio advertising is projected to hit $802 million in 2016 while satellite radio ads are projected to generate $116 million in revenue….The publishing industry will see traditional print books decline, but that will be more than compensated by the rise in eBooks. Electronic books are projected to grow by an almost 32 percent compound annual growth rate.